GENI - BUY - Updating Model; 2Q/2026 Guide Appear Intact; Legend Integration On Track; Expect Overhangs to Abate as the Year Progresses

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GENI - BUY - Updating Model; 2Q/2026 Guide Appear Intact; Legend Integration On Track; Expect Overhangs to Abate as the Year Progresses

June 11, 2026

Curry Baker curry.baker@guggenheimpartners.com GENI - BUY - Updating Model; 2Q/2026 Guide

804 253 8029 Appear Intact; Legend Integration On Track; Expect

Michael Morris, CFA

michael.morris@guggenheimpartners.com Overhangs to Abate as the Year Progresses

804 253 8025

Charles Wilber Key Message: We have updated our model to reflect continued confidence in charles.wilber@guggenheimpartners.com management's full-year outlook. Our forecasts are at the high end of the guidance range 804 335 3977

($1.01bn of revenue and $279mm of EBITDA) and modestly above consensus ($1.00bn,

Taylor Manley $274mm, respectively). We expect second quarter results to come in line with to slightly

taylor.manley@guggenheimpartners.com above management's stated guidance (forecast $186mm of revenue vs. $185mm guide,

804 253 1336 and $46mm of EBITDA vs. the $45mm guide). Looking ahead to 2H26, we see the

Grayson Glenn two primary overhangs on GENI abating: 1) Prediction markets - we believe GENI

grayson.glenn@guggenheimpartners.com is close to announcing Prediction market deals (similar to SRAD/Kalshi earlier

804 253 8053 this week), and 2) the Legend acquisition - we believe the integration and synergy

upside remain on track and intact.

Valuation: We are reiterating our BUY rating and our $11 price target based on 14x

(unchanged) our updated 2026 EV/ EBITDA outlook. Our blended 14x multiple is based GENI BUY

Genius Sports Limited on a SOTP 18x for the betting business and 5x for the media business, as we believe the

Sector: Media & Live Entertainment company must prove it has created a differentiated media flywheel. Our 14x multiple is a