Biotechnology: Mast Cells and Atopic Dermatitis: Thoughts on 2H26 EVMN and CLDX Data

研报英文原文证据摘录

Biotechnology: Mast Cells and Atopic Dermatitis: Thoughts on 2H26 EVMN and CLDX Data

at low-single-digit market share in the uncontrolled

moderate-to-severe AD population at a ~35-45% PoS, translating to a ~$800M peak

risk-adjusted US sales opportunity. We expect that the downside for these catalysts

would be driven more by sentiment than by removal of these programs from base-

case models. We discuss more detailed scenarios within. Note that the upside/

downside moves for the EVO756 Ph2b data in AD may be significantly affected by

the preceding EVO756 data in CSU (Ph2b readout expected this month).

Exhibit 1: Scenarios for Upcoming CLDX and EVMN Catalysts in Atopic

Dermatitis

Company Catalyst Timing Bear Scenario Bull

Description No clinically meaningful benefitemerges.vs. placebo and/or a new safety signal EfficacyandclosesafetytoconsistentDupixent onwithitch/EASIbarzolvolimab'swith positiveknowndoseprofile.response

CLDX Toplinefor BarzolvolimabPhase 2 Data Late 2026

Stock Move Down ~10-15% Up ~40%

that of Dupixent on itch/EASI with positive dose

safety (e.g., no need for lab monitoring, treatment- Description No clinically meaningful benefitemerges.vs. placebo and/or a new safety signal responseEfficacy approachingand cleanrelated adverse events are mostly mild).

EVMN ToplineforPhaseEVO7562b Data 3Q26

Stock Move* Down ~30% Up ~80%+

*Stock moves for EVMN are heavily dependent on the outcome of the preceding chronic spontaneous urticaria data expected in June 2026.

Source: Morgan Stanley Research

See our accompanying note (here) for our more detailed thoughts on the AD

commercial opportunity more broadly and how precedent data and stock reactions

inform our upside expectations.

BMY and REGN are covered by Terence Flynn.

INSM is covered by Maxwell Skor.