Biotechnology: A Framework for Assessing the Atopic Ascent in Eczema

研报英文原文证据摘录

Biotechnology: A Framework for Assessing the Atopic Ascent in Eczema

current backdrop of mixed results and recent clinical disappointments across

emerging AD targets. See Bull/Bear scenarios for each in Exhibit 1 and a more

detailed catalyst preview in our companion piece (see here).

Should these readouts be convincingly positive, they could move shares 40%+; this

assumes the opportunity in AD for EVO756 and barzolvolimab are subsequently

incorporated into models at low single-digit market share in the uncontrolled

moderate-to-severe AD population at a ~35-45% PoS, translating to a ~$800M peak

risk-adjusted US sales opportunity. As for downside, we expect directional stock

reaction on a disappointment would be driven more by sentiment than by removal

of these programs from base case models. Moves in both directions are informed by

precedent catalyst reactions in related Smid biotechs, sampled in Exhibit 2 .

Exhibit 1: Scenarios for Upcoming CLDX and EVMN Catalysts in Eczema

Company Catalyst Timing Bear Scenario Bull

Description No clinically meaningfulsafety signalbenefitemergesvs. placebo and/or a new Efficacyconsistentapproachingwith barzolvolimab'sthat of Dupixentknownandprofile.safety

CLDX Toplinefor BarzolvolimabPhase 2 data Late 2026

Stock Move Down ~10-15% Up ~40%

that of Dupixent and clean safety

for lab monitoring, treatment-related Description No clinically meaningfulsafety signalbenefitemergesvs. placebo and/or a new Efficacy(e.g., noapproachingneedadverse events are mostly mild).

EVMN ToplineforPhaseEVO7562b data 3Q26

Stock Move* Down ~30% Up ~80%

*Stock moves for EVMN are heavily dependent on the outcome of the preceding chronic spotaneous urticaria data expected in June 2026.

Source: Morgan Stanley Research