FX Markets Weekly Central banks take centre stage

研报英文原文证据摘录

FX Markets Weekly Central banks take centre stage

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

12 June 2026

FX Markets Weekly

Central banks take centre stage

Outlook: Pockets of upside inflation surprises in G10, rising US real yields, and a Global FX Strategy

ACfading debasement narrative keep our bullish USD/bullish carry barbell strategy Meera Chandan

intact. Chair Warsh's inaugural FOMC is the marquee event next week, with the 2027 (44-20) 7134-2924

dot and the press conference set to be market-movers. An orthodox acknowledgement meera.chandan@jpmorgan.com

of stronger US cyclicals may be enough to constiute a hawkish outcome for the dollar, J.P. Morgan Securities plc

which continues to trade at a discount to rates fair value; we head into event long. Arindam Sandilya

History counsels that the dollar reliably appreciates ~5% in the 6 months leading up (65) 6882-7759

arindam.x.sandilya@jpmorgan.com

to the first Fed hike of a cycle, FX carry benefits, and vol ratchets 3-5pts post-delivery. JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Singapore Branch

Elsewhere in G10, a fully-priced hike, potential QT halt, and Ueda's absence at the

Patrick R Locke

presser skew JPY risks dovish at next week’s BoJ; hawkish Norges vs. dovish (1-212) 834-4254

Riksbank divergence could headline European CB outcomes; while the Makerfield patrick.r.locke@jpmchase.com

by-election aftermath will likely prove a bigger GBP driver than the BoE. J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

Ladislav Jankovic

Macro Trade Recommendations: Stay long USD via EUR/USD into FOMC but

(1-212) 834-9618

take tactical profit on USD/CAD. Cyclical backdrop remains carry-supportive; hold ladislav.jankovic@jpmchase.com

CAD/MXN shorts, re-enter long NOK vs CHF and JPY. Stay short SEK vs. NOK and J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

EUR pre-Riksbank.