China Auto Industry Mind the gap on the export story: 1) tight shipping supply and 2) EU Summit on June 18

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China Auto Industry Mind the gap on the export story: 1) tight shipping supply and 2) EU Summit on June 18

ex) is up 73% jiajie.shen@jpmchase.com

since March; blank sailings running ~7% in the near-term view, with SAC Registration Number: S1730520030006

disruptions concentrated on Transpacific eastbound (49%) and Asia– J.P. Morgan Securities (China) Company

Europe/Med (34%) (Europe-facing lanes more exposed than intra-Asia). Limited

• Combined implications (operational + financial) on autos from tight Cathy Liu

shipping supply: Shipping tightness is more likely to hit China OEMs via (852) 2800-8629

cost/working-capital and delivery volatility (surcharges, longer transit/dwell, cathy.xiao.liu@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/

schedule reliability) than a hard cap on exports. Sensitivity is highest on J.P. Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited

Europe-bound intercontinental flows, while medium-term risk should be Jenny Qiu, CFA

mitigated by OEM localization/overseas footprint buildout and pricing/mix (852) 2800 8503

support. Also, based on our discussions with key OEMs with European jenny.qiu@jpmorgan.com

exposure, the increase in freight rate cost (on per vehicle basis, which is a few J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/

thousands Rmb or a few hundreds EUR, depending on type/ size of the vessels) J.P. Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited

can be easily mitigated given the much higher selling price (often ~EUR40-

60k).

• Event 2: The European Council Summit will take place on June 18-19,

where EU-China trade and economic relations are central on the agenda

(relevant news click here). Whilst the EU Summit’s formal agenda doesn’t

explicitly cite Chinese autos, it flags key areas to discuss around EU‑China