Stocktake Australian Consumer Primer for 12 June 2026 – Super Retail, JB Hi-Fi, RBA and discretionary retail

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Stocktake Australian Consumer Primer for 12 June 2026 – Super Retail, JB Hi-Fi, RBA and discretionary retail

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

12 June 2026

Stocktake

Australian Consumer Primer for 12 June 2026 – Super

Retail, JB Hi-Fi, RBA and discretionary retail

ACKey themes we are exploring today: AustralianBryan RaymondConsumer Sector

(61-2) 9003-6750

• Super Retail investor day highlights ambitious, but capital intensive bryan.raymond@jpmorgan.com

growth outlook. Super Retail outlined its medium-term growth strategy, Christina Kim

(61-2) 9003-7082

which is underpinned by its Ignite transformation program, elevated capex and christina.kim@jpmorgan.com

cost-out. Accountability and focus were key themes that came through in J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

presentations by a refreshed management team. We remain below the

ambitious FY31 store growth targets outlined for Supercheap Auto and Rebel,

and assume the ~$75m three-year cost-out is largely reinvested. The absence

of a trading update gives us confidence that near-term earnings are on-track for

current expectations, resulting in largely unchanged FY26 forecasts (+0.7%).

The step up in project costs is driving Group & Unallocated costs of $60m p.a.

from FY27-FY29E, which underpin EPS downgrades of -3.8% in FY27 and

-3.9% in FY28. Consensus EPS revisions of +0.2% in FY26e, -3.7% in FY27e

and -2.0% in FY28e are broadly similar. Our price target reduces from $15.30

to $15.00; however, we maintain our Overweight rating. We forecast divisional

PBT growth (ex-group and unallocated costs) of 7.8% YoY in FY27 and 7.4%

in FY28 after 3 consecutive years of declines from FY24 to FY26. See our full

report here.

• ACCC orders JB Hi-Fi to refund $250,000 to 206 customers around “was/

now” pricing.