Donaldson Company Inc.: Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Donaldson Company Inc.: Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Donaldson Company Inc. (DCI.N)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS CATALYST CALENDAR

Drivers 2025 2026e 2027e 2028e Date Event Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley

25 Aug 2026 -

Core Operating Income Margin (%) 15.7 16.1 17.2 17.4 Q4 2026 Donaldson Company Inc Earnings Release

31 Aug 2026

20 Nov 2026 -

Donaldson Company Inc Annual Shareholders Meeting

24 Nov 2026

02 Dec 2026 -

Q1 2027 Donaldson Company Inc Earnings Release

07 Dec 2026

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Idiosyncratic revenue initiatives RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Jul 2026e

Machinery OEM aftermarket initiatives Life Sciences organic growth accelerates and 3.96 Margin improvement efforts margins expand faster than expected EPS

Global industrial demand and macroeconomic Bolt-on M&A bolsters topline growth in Food & ($) 3.92 3.98

sentiment Bev and Life Sciences 3.95

OEM inventory destocking and restocking Gas turbine manufacturing activity accelerates

RISKS TO DOWNSIDE Sales / 3,887

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE End market activity in Truck, Ag and Revenue 3,835 3,891

0-10% MEA Construction remain muted for longer ($, mm) 3,863

APAC, ex Japan, Mainland Pricing in aftermarket more challenging than 10-20% China and India anticipated

10-20% Europe ex UK Cost inflation exceeds pricing, driving lower EBIT 624

10-20% Latin America than expected margins ($, mm) 614 630

40-50% North America 619

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate OWNERSHIP POSITIONING

View explanation of regional hierarchies here Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

Inst. Owners, % Active 55.5% Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

MS ALPHA MODELS HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1.4x

HF Sector Net Exposure 8.8%

3/5 24 Month 3/5 3 Month

BEST Horizon MOST Horizon Refinitiv; MSPB Content.