Healthcare REITs: Senior Housing Growth Algorithm Intact; Visibility on Lab Recovery Limited; Reiterate OW WELL, AHR, JAN; Downgrade DOC to EW; Downgrade ARE to UW

研报英文原文证据摘录

Healthcare REITs: Senior Housing Growth Algorithm Intact; Visibility on Lab Recovery Limited; Reiterate OW WELL, AHR, JAN; Downgrade DOC to EW; Downgrade ARE to UW

Foundation

June 11, 2026 12:41 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMHealthcare REITs | North America Ronald Kamdem, CFA

Equity Analyst

Senior Housing Growth Ronald.Kamdem@morganstanley.comDerrick Metzler +1 212 296-8319

Research Associate

Derrick.Metzler@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-3366

Algorithm Intact; Visibility on Adam Kramer

Adam.Kramer@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4623

Lab Recovery Limited; Reiterate

OW WELL, AHR, JAN;

Downgrade DOC to EW; Real Estate Investment Trusts

North America

Industry View In-LineDowngrade ARE to UW

Exhibit 1 : NIC Senior Housing Stabilized

What’s Changed Occupancy by Community Type

Healthpeak Properties Inc (DOC.N) From To Stabilized Occupancy (%)

100.0%

Rating Overweight Equal-weight Independent Living Assisted Living

Price Target $20.00 $22.00 95.0% NursingSeniors HousingCare (Skilled(IL+AL)Nursing) CCRC

90.0%

Alexandria RE Eq (ARE.N)

85.0%

Rating Equal-weight Underweight

80.0%

In +40 charts we dissect supply/demand fundamentals in senior 75.0% 90.1%

housing, life sci, and outpatient medical. Operating leverage and 70.0%

1Q11 4Q11 3Q12 2Q13 1Q14 4Q14 3Q15 2Q16 1Q17 4Q17 3Q18 2Q19 1Q20 4Q20 3Q21 2Q22 1Q23 4Q23 3Q24 2Q25 1Q26

SHOP investments drive higher conviction in WELL/AHR/JAN's

ability to maintain higher growth. We reduce life sci exposure: Source: NIC, Morgan Stanley Research

downgrade DOC to EW and ARE to UW.

Exhibit 2 : Life Science Vacancy Rate

Key Takeaways 45.0% Life Science Vacancy Rate

40.0% National Bay Area San Diego Boston

Operating leverage, SHOP investments, and Lab recovery drive 2027 estimates 35.0%

30.0%

across Healthcare REITs 25.0%

20.0%