Fertilizer Industry Update USDA June WASDE

研报英文原文证据摘录

Fertilizer Industry Update USDA June WASDE

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

11 June 2026

Fertilizer Industry Update

USDA June WASDE

Chemicals: Specialty, Commodity,

Agricultural, and Paper & Packaging

Jeffrey J. Zekauskas AC

(1-212) 622-6644

jeffrey.zekauskas@jpmorgan.com

• Planting complete. Overall, we view the June WASDE results as somewhat Silke Kueck

more negative short term for domestic producers of fertilizers, seeds, and traits (1-212) 622-6503

silke.x.kueck@jpmorgan.com

with fewer acres under drought watch, domestic corn ending inventories 13m

Katie Zhang

bu above the Street est., and global corn inventories inching higher m/m. The

(1-212) 622-3262

domestic corn stocks-to-use ratio is moving lower y/y from 13% in 2025/26 to katie.zhang@jpmchase.com

12.1% in 2026/27 (and unchanged m/m) due to fewer acres planted. Notably, Lydia Huang

U.S. planting is mostly complete, with 97% of U.S. corn planted and 86% (1-212) 622-0086

emerged and 92% of beans planted and 79% emerged. We think acreage/yield lydia.huang@jpmorgan.com

estimates are likely to be revised over the next few months. Estimates for feed J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

demand and exports in 2026/27 may also be revised. The June 30 Acreage

report will update 2026 planting intentions.

• The USDA projects U.S. corn ending stocks of 12.1% for the summer of

2027, vs. 13% for 2026 (ends Aug. 31, 2026). The U.S. corn production

forecast is 15,995m bu (Street 15,989m bu) based on 95.3m acres planted in

2026, 87.4m acres harvested, and an average corn yield of 183 bu/ac (Street

182.9 bu/ac). The demand forecast is 16,205m bu, down (250m) bu y/y, based

on (100m) bu lower y/y feed/residual demand, and (175m) bu lower y/y

exports. The USDA’s estimate for corn ending-stocks for 2026/27 is 1,960m bu

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