F4Q earnings first take

研报英文原文证据摘录

F4Q earnings first take

Flash Note Consumer | Food

June 09, 2026

The J. M. Smucker Co David Palmer John Quartarolo, CFA 212-497-0836 646-784-4638

SJM | $101.77 David.Palmer@evercoreisi.com john.quartarolo@evercoreisi.com

Outperform | Target Price/Base Case: $117.00 Elliott Simon, CFA James Donnelly

Company Update 212-497-0820 212-812-2904

Elliott.Simon@evercoreisi.com James.Donnelly@evercoreisi.com

Coffee having a dramatic impact on FY27 guidance: The real headline from F4Q earnings is the fiscal 2027 guidance that

includes a striking combination of lower-than-expected organic sales (down 3-4%) and equal-to-higher-than-expected EPS (7-12%

growth to $9.75 to $10.25). We believe this is largely related to a) declining US Retail Coffee prices/sales amid a 20% YoY decline

in the commodity, and b) an expectation that coffee is likely to return to high-20s profit margin. If achieved, this coffee margin would

be one year ahead of our expectations. Heading into our conversations with the company today, we wonder if the company can

sustain algo EPS growth in FY28 if coffee profitability will not be a material contributor.

F4Q results largely in line with consensus. Fiscal 4Q EPS was $2.77 (+20% YoY; EVRe $2.63; cons. $2.64) and consolidated

organic sales growth of 6% (EVRe 5.2%; cons. 5.3%). Consolidated organic sales growth was driven by US consumption for the

period of +3%, +1pp shipment benefit, and growth in International and Away From Home. Adjusted operating income was $482M

(+14% YoY; EVRe $455M; cons. $457M) with segment upside from Coffee, US Retail Frozen Handheld & Spreads, and Pet.

US Retail Coffee organic sales and operating profit largely in line. F4Q organic sales increased 12.5% (EVRe +13%; cons.

+14%) driven by net pricing and higher elasticity.