Fighting Oil with Coffee; Reiterate Buy

研报英文原文证据摘录

Fighting Oil with Coffee; Reiterate Buy

June 4, 2026 J.M. Smucker Company

(SJM, Buy, $120 PT)

Robert Dickerson

Fighting Oil with Coffee; Reiterate Buy rdickerson@btig.comCONSUMER Hannah Lascher WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW: Higher energy costs are driving U.S. Food sector hlascher@btig.com

profitability fears. Incremental cost pressure could erode margin recovery, cause Company Data

additional pricing needs, and damage demand further. Smucker isn't immune to cost

inflation, but its largest category (coffee) is facing material cost deflation, thereby Closing Price $101.27

Price Target $120.00STAPLES providing balance in an otherwise pressured sector. We remain ahead of consensus

over the next two years, and reiterate our Buy rating. Market Cap (M) $10,805.51

Enterprise Value (M) $17,897.22 ■ BTIG U.S. Retail Coffee profit analysis suggests upside to consensus. With Arabica

coffee having deflated ~10% over the past month and ~30% since the end of Shares Out (M) 106.70EQUITY April, we still find the U.S. Retail Coffee segment's profit expansion potential Avg Daily Vol-3 Months (M) 1.89

underappreciated. Arabica coffee spot and futures prices now suggest a ~25% Dividend / Yield $4.40 / 4.3%

decline in the commodity in CY’26, with Q4'CY'26 down ~35% y/y. Our BTIG Coffee Revisions

Pricing & Profit Analysis shows that coffee margin and profit expansion should

Previous Current commence in the company’s fiscal Q2'27. Once we combine the cost-deflationary

profit benefits of coffee with the back-half FY’27 tariff add-backs, we’re looking for Rating Buy BuyRESEARCH mid-teens y/y segment EBIT growth next fiscal year. That said, if volumes improve Price Target $120.00 $120.00

off lower pass-through pricing, Smucker simply doesn't pass through as much of FY26E REV 9,034.27 9,029.90