CSL "Could the worst be past…" (Buy) Low

研报英文原文证据摘录

CSL "Could the worst be past…" (Buy) Low

Global Research

9 June 2026ab

CSL Equities

AustraliaCould the worst be past…

Pharmaceuticals

12-month rating Buy

Is FY26 likely to be a low point for profitability?

Yes. We see limited risk to FY26 forecasts following the May update, with FY27 set to 12m price target A$158.00

benefit from an easier comp after ~$300m of Ig inventory was withdrawn from the US Prior : A$175.00

market plus a ~$300m boost from transformation initiative savings. This should offset

Price (05 Jun 2026) A$97.91

ongoing pressure from Vifor due to pricing declines and the ~$100m one-off from Lilly

in FY26. Despite continued competition in Ig and Chinese albumin, and a modest RIC: CSL.AX BBG: CSL AU

Behring margin recovery, we expect CSL to deliver low-single-digit underlying profit

Trading data and key metrics

growth in FY27, consistent with our forecasts and consensus estimates. With the stock

52-wk range A$272.00-92.24

trading at a meaningful discount to the market PE and our revised $158 price target, we

retain a Buy rating. Market cap. A$47.2b/US$33.6b

Shares o/s 482m (ORD)

Could the promised Behring gross margin recovery become evident in FY27? Free float 100%

Yes, though a return to pre-COVID levels is not in sight. FY27 should capture a full-year Avg. daily volume ('000) 1,640

benefit from lower plasma costs following the shift to nomogram collections. A ~10% Avg. daily value (m) A$197

lift in collections per donor at no incremental cost should drive a clear margin Common s/h equity (06/26E) US$14.3b

improvement. This will help offset price/competitive pressure across Ig, albumin and P/BV (06/26E) 2.3x

KCentra, as well as mix headwinds from softer sales of higher margin therapies such as Net debt to EBITDA (06/26E) 2.2x

Idelvion.