Buyer's remorse

研报英文原文证据摘录

Buyer's remorse

Macquarie Equity Research CSL

Earnings changes

• We revise FY26E/27E/28E EPS by 0%/-3%/-4% to reflect Tavneos news and adjustments to

Vifor GM%.

Figure 1 - CSL earnings changes

2026E 2027E 2028E

Old New Chg% Old New Chg% Old New Chg%

Total revenue 15,340 15,400 0% 15,507 15,452 0% 16,072 15,860 -1%

EBIT 4,447 4,456 0% 4,624 4,488 -3% 4,801 4,618 -4%

NPATA 3,084 3,092 0% 3,294 3,183 -3% 3,430 3,282 -4%

EPS 638 639 0% 686 663 -3% 721 689 -4%

Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, June 2026

Valuation

• DCF/PER blend TP (A$164.10/A$134.81, respectively) moves to A$114 (from A$111) with

impacts from EPS revisions offset by lower spot AUD/USD (0.69 vs 0.71 previously).

• We maintain our prior 20% discount to TP which incorporates risks around the scale/

duration of IG inventory issues, greater volume decline in the China albumin market,

and ongoing management uncertainty. We would expect to partially or fully unwind this

discount as these risks diminish, either through improved operational delivery or as further

analysis provides us with a higher level of comfort that these risks have subsided

Figure 2 - DCF valuation

Summary of Valuation Assumptions

Today's Share Price $ 100.75 Number of Shares on Issue (m) 486

Today's Date 29-Jun-26 Market Value of Equity (A$'m) 48,987

Year End 30-Jun-26 100% Book Value of Net Debt (US$m) 8,441

Tax Rate 20% After-tax cost of debt 5.84%

Risk Free Rate 3.81% Required Equity return 8.81%

Cost of Debt 5.84% WACC 8.21%

Debt Premium 3.50%

Market Risk Premium 5.0% Equity funded (assumed): 80%

Equity Beta 1.00 Debt funded (assumed): 20%

Terminal Growth Rate 3.00%

Core Business valuation

NPV 63,494 USD

Net debt 8,441 USD

Equity value 55,053 USD

EFPO 486.2

NPV valuation (A$ per share) $ 113.23

Price target (A$ per share) $ 113.00