Remy Cointreau "Taking back control - upgrade to Neutral" (Neutral) Aujla

研报英文原文证据摘录

Remy Cointreau "Taking back control - upgrade to Neutral" (Neutral) Aujla

UR)

indexes vs peers (8% share of XO v 26% share total Cognac; 3) Capture full potential of From To % ch Cons.

the prestige division; 4) double sales in Emerging markets (UBse currently 5% sales) 03/26E 1.60 1.70 6 1.65

including India, LatAm and Africa; 5) double sales in Global travel retail (UBse currently 03/27E 1.53 1.67 9 1.78

c7% sales) where group has a 12% market share in cognac vs 16% outside GTR. We 03/28E 1.70 2.01 19 2.04

estimate the latter two initiatives (doubling sales in EMs and GTR) alone can add c12%

Sanjeet Aujlato group sales. We estimate the cost initiatives to account for c50% of the €100m plan

Analyst

from greater centralisation of procurement across the group and internal restructuring. sanjeet.aujla@ubs.com

+44-20-7567 4529

FY27 outlook: We forecast +3.7% org sales and +4.5% org EBIT (+15bps margin Arnaud Autier

expansion), which compares to consensus +3.2/+5.1% organic revenue/EBIT. We expect Associate Analyst

strong growth in Asia (40% sales), as modest growth in China led by continued share arnaud.autier@ubs.com

gains in a weak category is complemented with a strong growth in GTR (and other Asian +44-20-7901 6849

markets), where some of the commercial initiatives are further advanced to recover lost

share in recent years. In the US, we expect continued depletion declines, however we

expect shipments to be relatively stable, as we estimate the business still has a c10pp

buffer. We expect most of the other commercial initiatives to be more visible in F28/29.

Valuation: Remy trades on a 21.8x cal. 2027E P/E and 21.4x cal. 2027E EV/NOPAT, at a

89%/41% premium to large cap Spirits (DGE and Pernod).