BEVERAGES : European Spirits Data (Nielsen, Apr’26): Softer April trends

研报英文原文证据摘录

BEVERAGES : European Spirits Data (Nielsen, Apr’26): Softer April trends

Investment case, valuation and risks

Campari (Outperform, Target Price EUR7)

Investment case

We believe Campari will re-rate further as market confidence over the strong (c.+5-6%)

organic sales growth profile of the portfolio rebuilds.

Valuation methodology

We value Campari on c.20x FY27e EPS.

Risks

To the upside:

Upside risks include: demand for Campari's Aperitif brands holding up materially better

than we expect leading to consensus sales / profit upgrades. Campari is able to deliver

on its SG&A cost cutting targets to a greater extent than the market expects.

To the downside:

Downside risks include: Campari's growth is subject to a prolonged post-Covid

normalisation leading to further organic sales and EPS downgrades. Campari

undertaking a transformational acquisition which is negatively received by the market.

Diageo plc (Neutral, Target Price 1,470p)

Diageo is trading at around historically low valuation multiple, but this appropriately

reflects the mid-term growth profile of the business in our view.

We value Diageo on c.12x ½ FY27e + ½ FY28e EPS (converted to GBp).

The recovery in the US spirits market could occur quicker than we assume leading to an

upward inflection in earnings and a material re-rating in the shares. Guinness momentum

further accelerates leading to group sales / profit upgrades.

The current weak trends in US spirits industry are driven by largely structural factors

leading to weak operational trends and a de-rating of the stock. Incremental tariffs

between the US and Mexico, Canada, the EU or the UK are implemented. Price

repositioning leads to a lower than anticipated volume response and profit declines.

Pernod Ricard (Underperform, Target Price EUR61)