Novartis "Readout scenarios for remibrutinib P3 in multiple sclerosis" (Neutral)

研报英文原文证据摘录

Novartis "Readout scenarios for remibrutinib P3 in multiple sclerosis" (Neutral)

Focus on remibrutinib MS

Updating UBS market opportunity to $3.5bn peak (from $1.5bn)

Ahead of our sensitivity analysis, we have revisited our peak sales assumptions for

remibrutinib in MS. Today, the MS market is dominated by the high-efficacy injectable

class of anti-CD20 drugs. In 2025, these generated combined WW sales of $13.5bn,

which is estimated to grow to $16.9bn by 2030E (Figure 3Multiplesclerosismarketpotential). Based on commentary from

both Novartis and Roche, we estimate that CD-20s are used to treat c.50% of MS

patients. This leaves an equivalent c.$14bn revenue potential non-CD20 market, if

upgraded to branded prices. Today this category is dominated by generic, lower-efficacy,

oral agents, such as Aubagio, Gilenya and Tecfidera, so represents negligible industry

revenue. Based on a product profile of a novel branded, safe, oral agent with efficacy

approaching CD20 levels, we estimate peak sales potential of $3.5bn as a reasonable

baseline for reminbrutinib in relapsing-remiting MS. We assume an additional $1bn

peak potential in secondary progressive MS (data due 2030E).

UBS total forecasts for the remibrutinib franchise are set out in Figure 4Remibrutinibsalesforecastsplitbyindication. We assume

$11.5bn peak sales potential across key indications, of which $7.5bn is included in our

risk-adjusted revenue forecasts. We assume 50% probability of success for remi in RMS.

See Figure 17Changestoforecasts for changes in forecasts.

Figure 3: Multiple sclerosis market potential

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Source: UBS estimates, VA consensus Note: 2030E sales not probability-adjusted

Figure 4: Remibrutinib sales forecast split by indication

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