Novartis "Readout scenarios for remibrutinib P3 in multiple sclerosis" (Neutral)

Research evidence excerpt

Novartis "Readout scenarios for remibrutinib P3 in multiple sclerosis" (Neutral)

Focus on remibrutinib MS

Updating UBS market opportunity to $3.5bn peak (from $1.5bn)

Ahead of our sensitivity analysis, we have revisited our peak sales assumptions for

remibrutinib in MS. Today, the MS market is dominated by the high-efficacy injectable

class of anti-CD20 drugs. In 2025, these generated combined WW sales of $13.5bn,

which is estimated to grow to $16.9bn by 2030E (Figure 3Multiplesclerosismarketpotential). Based on commentary from

both Novartis and Roche, we estimate that CD-20s are used to treat c.50% of MS

patients. This leaves an equivalent c.$14bn revenue potential non-CD20 market, if

upgraded to branded prices. Today this category is dominated by generic, lower-efficacy,

oral agents, such as Aubagio, Gilenya and Tecfidera, so represents negligible industry

revenue. Based on a product profile of a novel branded, safe, oral agent with efficacy

approaching CD20 levels, we estimate peak sales potential of $3.5bn as a reasonable

baseline for reminbrutinib in relapsing-remiting MS. We assume an additional $1bn

peak potential in secondary progressive MS (data due 2030E).

UBS total forecasts for the remibrutinib franchise are set out in Figure 4Remibrutinibsalesforecastsplitbyindication. We assume

$11.5bn peak sales potential across key indications, of which $7.5bn is included in our

risk-adjusted revenue forecasts. We assume 50% probability of success for remi in RMS.

See Figure 17Changestoforecasts for changes in forecasts.

Figure 3: Multiple sclerosis market potential

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Source: UBS estimates, VA consensus Note: 2030E sales not probability-adjusted

Figure 4: Remibrutinib sales forecast split by indication

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