BASF : Deep dive on Zhanjiang site, sobering comments on current trading

研报英文原文证据摘录

BASF : Deep dive on Zhanjiang site, sobering comments on current trading

EQUITIES

CHEMICALS

BASF UNDERPERFORMPRICE* EUR51.0  TARGET PRICE EUR41 (DOWNSIDE 20%)

BASF ADR UNDERPERFORMPRICE* USD14.7  TARGET PRICE USD12 (DOWNSIDE 18%)

FLASH NOTE

Deep dive on Zhanjiang site, sobering comments on current trading

8 JUNE 2026 Securities Research Report Production time: 12:31* (London time)

Research Analyst & Publishing Entities

Laurent Favre, CFA BNP Paribas London Branch (+44) 203 430 8518 laurent.g.favre@uk.bnpparibas.com

What happened?

BASF just hosted a virtual deep dive on the new site in Zhanjiang, following successful start-up in early 2026, delivered

on time and below budget (€8.7bn from 2019 to 2028 including final tranches). This is BASF’s third largest and most

advanced integrated (Verbund) site after Ludwigshafen and Antwerp.

Target of €1.0-1.2bn EBITDA in mid to upcycle conditions for the site was re-iterated, as the assumed “slight negative

EBITDA” for 2026.

BNPP View: a site at the core of the discussion on the shape of the upstream cycle

For the stock, the most important comment during the Q&A was the current trading update, in which the CEO said that

based on April numbers and May topline (they don’t have EBITDA yet), they would expect Q2 to be in-line with

consensus (Vara at €2.0bn). We believe many bulls have been expecting a need to see an ad-hoc pre-release, perhaps

with FY guidance upgrade in early July. Comments on topline were consistent with our feedback from last week at our

Paris conference (Limbo in the City of Light).

In our view, the competitiveness of the Zhanjiang is not questioned, the bigger topic for profitability of the site, and

indeed of BASF, is how quickly we think supply/demand tightens back to mid-cycle. Whilst we understand