BASF 2Q26 Preview - Solid Q2, H2 Expectations Overstretched.

研报英文原文证据摘录

BASF 2Q26 Preview - Solid Q2, H2 Expectations Overstretched.

BASF SE (BAS GR)

Equity Research

June 30, 2026

The Long View: BASF SE

Investment Thesis Risk/Reward - 12 Month View

• The company is addressing the underperforming areas of the portfolio

Upside : Downside

(downstream has underperformed every year of the last decade). 65 1 : 1.4664 (+34%)

• The recent change in strategy is the most significant change at BASF for 60

more than a decade, and offers an opportunity to improve upstream and 55

downstream returns. 50

• Upstream chemical spreads represent a headwind for earnings, highlight 45 44 (-8%)

risk of lower and market demand/greater oversupply fears. 40

• Further risks surround its cost position; it is a major gas consumer and 35

therefore feedstock costs impact its position on the global cost curve. 30

25 24 (-50%)

2025 2026 +12 mo.

Base Case, Upside Scenario, Downside Scenario,

€44, -8% €64, +34% €24, -50%

• Our forecasts are on average ~3% below • Sustained tightening in upstream global • Downturn in cyclical end-markets (automotive

consensus (EBITDA) at the group level chemical markets supports sustained above- led) – affects global petrochemical supply/

(assuming substantial pricing but demand average chemicals margins. demand and product spreads/operating

destruction from H2). • Every 100bps change in EBIT margins affects margins.

• The change in strategy is the most significant our DCF by €8/share. • Ongoing operation of European assets at

change at BASF for more than a decade, and • Applying peak cycle EBITDA margins. suboptimal utilisation rates, as demand

offers an opportunity to improve upstream remains challenging.

and downstream returns. • Applying trough cycle margins to bottom

• Implies 8.3x 12-month forward EV/EBITDA. quartile EV/EBITDA