J. M. Smucker Co: Risk Reward Update

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J. M. Smucker Co: Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – J. M. Smucker Co (SJM.N)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers 2026 2027e 2028e 2029e

Org Sales Growth (%) 5.3 (3.0) 1.0 1.6

Gross Margin (%) 34.9 37.9 38.3 38.5

Operating Margin (%) 18.5 20.1 20.4 20.5

EPS Growth (%) (9.8) 9.8 6.8 7.6

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Improving share trends in Coffee and Pet RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Apr 2027e

Elasticities from coffee price actions Uncrustables manufacturing expands & leads to

Uncrustables distribution gains distribution gains Sales / 8,784

Sweet snacks rebound Coffee price increases improve org sales Revenue 8,743 9,213

Private-label pricing pressure Pet trends improve ($, mm) 9,024

Portfolio/SKU rationalization drive greater

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE profitability 2,058

Hostess sales rebound with market share gains EBITDA APAC, ex Japan, Mainland 1,945 2,309 0-10% China and India RISKS TO DOWNSIDE ($, mm) 2,097

0-10% Europe ex UK Pet trends decelerate

0-10% Mainland China Coffee price elasticity drives greater-than-

0-10% UK expected volume declines Net income 1,078

90-100% North America Uncrustables growth slows ($, mm) 974 1,093

1,056Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate Sweet snacks remain weak

View explanation of regional hierarchies here

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING EPS 10.05

MS ALPHA MODELS ($) 8.60 10.25

Inst. Owners, % Active 39.8% 9.80

5/5 24 Month 5/5 3 Month HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 0.9x

BEST Horizon MOST Horizon HF Sector Net Exposure -0.5% Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund

the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored exposures held with MSPB. Information may be