LatAm Retail & eCommerce: Tracking GMV Trends: MELI Gains Share, Local Operators Cede

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LatAm Retail & eCommerce: Tracking GMV Trends: MELI Gains Share, Local Operators Cede

Idea

June 10, 2026 02:30 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMLatAm Retail & eCommerce | Latin America Andrew R Ruben

Equity Analyst

Tracking GMV Trends: MELI Andrew.Ruben@morganstanley.comMorgan Stanley C.T.V.M. S.A.+ +1 212 761-4415

Alexandre K Namioka, CFA

Equity AnalystGains Share, Local Operators Alexandre.Namioka@morganstanley.com +55 11 3048-6073

Joao Marcelo Nogueira

Research AssociateCede

Joao.Marcelo.Nogueira@morganstanley.com +55 11 3048-6247

Our GMV toolkit illuminates share shifts across LatAm LatAm Retail & eCommerce

Latin America

eCommerce. OW-rated MELI reached a historical high of 41% Industry View No Rating

Brazil share in 1Q, supporting our conviction that investments What’s Changed

yield uplift. Conversely, UW-rated MGLU3, BHIA3, and WALMEX Magazine Luiza S.A.

(MGLU3.SA) From To

each donated online share, while facing macro headwinds offline. Price Target R$8.00 R$6.00

Grupo Casas Bahia S.A.

Key Takeaways (BHIA3.SA)Price Target FromR$2.75 ToR$1.25

What's New? We update our GMV tracking toolkit including industry share

estimates, app data trends, and post-1Q forecasts (MGLU3, BHIA3 model updates

inside).

MELI's ~60% incremental Brazil eCommerce share was a 1Q highlight,

demonstrating power of their investment stance and platform positioning,

despite competition.

With Brazil durable goods and rates pressures overpowering a World Cup boost,

our PTs decrease for UW-rated MGLU3 (R$6, from R$8), BHIA3 (R$1.25, from R

$2.75).

In Mexico, MELI gained +1.5pp of y/y share, above Walmex (UW) and Liverpool

(EW) — each of which also faced core (offline) operating headwinds in 1Q.

App trends QTD show MELI with continued monthly active user momentum,