Andean Equity Strategy Peru Election: If Vote Split per Province Remains Stable, Results Should Favor Fujimori

研报英文原文证据摘录

Andean Equity Strategy Peru Election: If Vote Split per Province Remains Stable, Results Should Favor Fujimori

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

09 June 2026

Andean Equity Strategy

Peru Election: If Vote Split per Province Remains

Stable, Results Should Favor Fujimori

The results of the second round of the Peruvian election are becoming the LatAm Equity Strategy

ACdefinition of a “photo finish.” Just a few thousand votes are separating the two Diego Celedon

candidates, in an election with almost 20 million votes. In this context, we will (56-22) 425-5245

probably have to wait until all votes have been counted and accounted for before diego.celedon@jpmorgan.com

having certainty about the winner. At the time of this publication, almost 96% of Inversiones J.P. Morgan Limitada

the votes have been processed, and there is a roughly 20,000 vote advantage for the Emy Shayo Cherman

left-wing candidate, Sanchez. Nonetheless, the big discrepancy in vote preference (55-11) 4950-6684

emy.shayo@jpmorgan.com

per region and the disparity between the percentage of votes counted in each region Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.

makes us believe that this outcome could change. If we assume that the 196

Adrian E Huerta

provinces in the country keep the current vote split stable, and also considering the (52-81) 8152-8720

same vote split per province for the vote tallies sent to the Electoral Court, right- adrian.huerta@jpmorgan.com

wing candidate Fujimori would win by an advantage of almost 90,000 votes. This J.P. Morgan Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V., J.P.

implies that the race is still open and that the next few days will likely continue to Morgan Grupo Financiero

be characterized by market volatility as the vote count progresses. As we have