Philippine Power & Water Utilities El Niño: Riding the heat, holding the tap

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Philippine Power & Water Utilities El Niño: Riding the heat, holding the tap

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

09 June 2026

Philippine Power & Water Utilities

El Niño: Riding the heat, holding the tap

The Philippine weather bureau has officially declared the onset of El Niño, which is Power

AClikely to persist through early 2027. Power names emerge as clear winners on stronger Jelline Gaza, CFA

energy sales and firmer spot prices. We prefer to play the theme via Meralco, (63-2) 8878-1131

underpinned by volume strength due to higher cooling demand and benefits to its jelline.gaza@jpmchase.com

GBPC assets from elevated Visayas spot prices due to forced outages. ACEN benefits J.P. Morgan Securities Philippines, Inc.

the most from spot price tailwinds due to its relatively high spot exposure, offsetting Jeanette Yutan

lower solar output in extreme heat. Aboitiz Power's coal fleet could likely pick up (63-2) 8878-1188

jeanette.g.yutan@jpmorgan.com

utilization into firmer prices, servicing rising demand as solar and hydro fade. We rank J.P. Morgan Securities Philippines, Inc.

it last in our trade preference, however, given the ongoing Therma Visayas outage

Alan Hon

(reopens August; 4% of capacity) and higher hydro reliance (18% mix), though the (852) 2800-8573

big HEPP impact lags into next summer. Water utilities stocks typically wobble on alan.hon@jpmorgan.com

water supply fears, but we underscore alternative-source investments and J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P.

comfortable ~24–25% supply buffers for both MWC and MYLND (Not Covered). Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited

We reiterate OW on Meralco and Aboitiz Power for defensive positioning and

attractive dividend yields, and advise investors to play into ACEN’s (N) profit See our latest notes: