ORCL: FQ4 Preview—Capex Debate Likely to Intensify

研报英文原文证据摘录

ORCL: FQ4 Preview—Capex Debate Likely to Intensify

Equity Research

Earnings Revised — June 5, 2026

U.S. Software

Oracle Corporation

FQ4 Preview—Capex Debate Likely to Intensify Overweight

Price Target: $280.00

Notable Changes

Our Call $ (May) Current Prior % Chg

While revs/capacity are largely tracking in line, bigger debates into the print center on capex, EPS 2027 8.17 8.22 -0.7%

cost inflation, and margin impacts. Similar to peers, we expect ORCL sets clearer expectations Rev. (MM) 2027 90.27B 90.10B 0.2%

around FY27 (or CY26) capex. Raise FY27/FY28 capex 5%/39%.

Ticker ORCL

FQ4 setup—est OCI adds $0.9B q/q; 5th straight qtr of accel: ORCL's last guidance for Upside/(Downside) to Target 18.5%

$18B FY26 OCI revs implies $5.7B in FQ4; we model ~1% above OCI guide at $5.8B, but Price (06/04/2026) $236.36

in line w/ overall Cloud rev growth (model 48% y/y vs St 48%, guide 46-50%). Qtrly rev 52 Week Range $134.57 - 345.72

adds largely driven by continued capacity adds at Abilene & other sites. While historically

Market Cap (MM) $688,280

ORCL landed at low end/mdpt of guide, last qtrly print at high end could shift investor

expects a touch higher (ie, more likely 49-50% on Cloud revs). Enterprise Value (MM) $788,944

Average Daily Value (MM) $6,441

Expect capacity adds largely in line — 500MW+ going live this qtr: Recent mgmt Dividend Yield 0.0%

commentary with media suggests ORCL delivered more than last qtr's 400MW, in line

with our ests (for +0.5GW). We estimate ORCL reached 2.5GW as of May '26; ORCL has $ (May) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY

now added (at least) 1.2GW in the last 3 qtrs alone. We still est that ORCL reaches 3.5GW EPS

by CYE26, requiring it to add another 1GW during C2H26 (est roughly evenly split 0.5GW 2026E 1.47 A 2.26 A 1.79 A 1.93 E 7.45 E

in each FQ3/FQ4).