ORCL: 4Q26 Teardown — Empire State of Mind

研报英文原文证据摘录

ORCL: 4Q26 Teardown — Empire State of Mind

e of AI opp ahead and ORCL's of AI demand across the major AI Labs capacity (power, GPUs, etc.) and/or

favorable positioning within key AI lab and/or better-than-expected execution. weaker-than-expected demand.

accounts. • In our upside scenario, ORCL accelerates • In our downside scenario, ORCL still

to 55% y/y by FY28, delivering $70B, accelerates but more modestly (&

$90B, and $140B in FY26-FY28E, misses its LT guides), or $65B, $82B,

yielding >$12 in EPS by FY28 ($12.11). and $125B in FY26-FY28E, yielding sub-

• This upside scenario should allow $10 in EPS by FY28 ($9.91).

ORCL to trade at a premium to • This downside scenario could result in

historical levels, near ~30x P/E, which ORCL multiples reverting to historical

would suggest $365 per share (~80% levels, near ~12.5x P/E, which would

upside potential), derived using FY28 suggest $125 per share (~25%

estimates. downside potential), derived using FY28

estimates.

Upcoming Catalysts Company Description

• FQ1 earnings call on Sep 10, 2026, Oracle is a leading software company, provider of hardware

• Oracle AI World 2026 on Oct 25-28, 2026, products and services. Oracle develops, manufactures, markets,

• Go-live of Abilene, TX data center for OpenAI (Phase II, 1GW) distributes and services database and middleware software,

expected by year-end 2026, alongside go-live of Zettascale10 applications software and hardware systems. The company is

supercluster organized into three businesses, cloud and software, representing

the majority of the company's total revenues, hardware systems

and services. Oracle has its headquarters in Redwood City,

California, and was founded in 1977.

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