The J.M. Smucker Company: Fiscal 4Q26 Earnings Prep

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The J.M. Smucker Company: Fiscal 4Q26 Earnings Prep

Barclays | The J.M. Smucker Company

Our Thoughts

With SJM set to report its F4Q26 results, we think most important will be its FY27 outlook. While

not yet providing formal guidance, the company has laid out its expectation to deliver on

algorithm or better EPS growth in FY27. In our view, green coffee deflation, the change in the

coffee tariff policy, and suppressed profitability in Sweet Baked Snacks in F2H26 lend more

credence to FY27 earnings growth being "potentially better" than algorithm (more on this

below). On the other hand, we do think SJM will be prudent in its initial outlook. That is, we’d

look for SJM to continue to reinvest against some key brands in its U.S. Retail Frozen Handhelds

& Spreads and U.S. Retail Pet Foods segments where trends have been a bit softer of late. Plus,

in U.S. Retail Coffee, as elasticity has come in more favorably when SJM took price up this fiscal

year, there might not be an immediate concurrent volume boost if, and more likely when, price/

promotion is reduced in the face of commodity deflation, suggesting some potential volume

absorption pressure, which could limit the magnitude of upside. All in, we think, at least

initially, SJM will be prudent with its FY27 outlook, though we think the current valuation

actually embeds this expectation at this stage and FY27 consensus EPS estimates have

moderated as well. We look for a +9% YOY rise in EPS in FY27 vs consensus of ~+9.5% YOY.

Separately, with SJM having recently put Rob Ferguson in charge of the company’s

transformation office, we think that, along with FY27 guidance, we could get more detail on, and

perhaps quantification of, the incremental productivity opportunities at SJM, especially in the

years beyond FY27.