Oracle Corp.: 4Q26 Preview: AI-Powered Acceleration to Continue, Focus on New CFO Comments Around CapEx & LT Targets

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Oracle Corp.: 4Q26 Preview: AI-Powered Acceleration to Continue, Focus on New CFO Comments Around CapEx & LT Targets

Barclays | Oracle Corp.

Oracle Fiscal 4Q26 Earnings Preview - Execution and Commentary

Around LT Targets Key to Q4

Entering F4Q26, sentiment for Oracle has rebounded off of muted levels with shares up 40%

over the last quarter (vs. IGV +9%) as investors have seemed to come to view ORCL's AI

infrastructure opportunity in a more favorable light in-line with other industry beneficiaries like

the neoclouds (A dynamic we have argued is overdue, see Oracle Corp.: Oracle Upside Case

Remains Real, 5/6/26). However, while writing this, we do note that the market sentiment seems

to be taking a bit of a pause after increased excitement around the neocloud space in recent

months, particularly following Friday's jobs report that adds questions around the current

inflation and interest rate trajectory in the US (ORCL -9.6% vs. IGV -4.2% on 6/5). We expect Q4

results to showcase another AI-infrastructure powered acceleration with potential for OCI

growth to accelerate into the mid 90s and for OpEx efficiencies to offset gross margin pressure

and healthy in-line adj. EPS results. OCI growth of 90%+ would be a significant acceleration

from 81%, 68% and 55% ccy over the last three quarters, which we believe will highlight to

investors that Oracle's multi-year growth acceleration story is well intact.

While we anticipate Q4 results and delivering on ORCL's $18bn OCI guide for FY26 will be a

positive for maintaining continued confidence in ORCL's execution, the more important

barometer will be commentary from mgmt and ORCL's new CFO Hilary Maxson around FY27

CapEx and the company's MT/LT targets, which we detail in the section below. We do not see