CK Asset Holdings Ltd: Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

CK Asset Holdings Ltd: Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – CK Asset Holdings Ltd (1113.HK)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers 2025 2026e 2027e 2028e

Property sales EBIT margin (%) 13 23 24 24

Revenue growth YoY of non-prop

7 (6) 3 3

recurring business (%)

Non-prop business EBIT margin (%) 7 8 9 9

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Capital return: Dividends and continued RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

buybacks Announcement of a new buyback plan

Capital recycling: Redeploying capital into stable Successful launch of its residential projects in Sales /

income-generating assets Hong Kong Revenue 55,779 86,048

Rental reversion for retail and office buildings Successful acquisition of sizable recurring (HK$, mn) 67,338

Strong primary sales, high sell-through and income business such as infrastructure

margin

RISKS TO DOWNSIDE 13,535

EBITDA

Deeper conglomerate discount if more 13,535 28,700GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE (HK$, mn)

geographically diverse assets are added 21,252

0-10% Europe ex UK Pure-play property investors exiting

0-10% North America Higher cost pressure in its pub and hotel

1.82

20-30% Mainland China businesses DPS

1.68 2.66 20-30% UK Higher-for-longer interest rate environment (HK$)

APAC, ex Japan, Mainland 1.90 30-40% China and India

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate 3.95

EPSView explanation of regional hierarchies here Inst. Owners, % Active 63.2% 3.52 5.86

(HK$)

4.52 Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

MS ALPHA MODELS

Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

1/5 3 Month Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

MOST Horizon

Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is

the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored

Quintile

Morgan Stanley Research 3