Stocktake Australian Consumer Primer for 9 June 2026 – Wesfarmers, Treasury Wine, Dairy price inflation

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Stocktake Australian Consumer Primer for 9 June 2026 – Wesfarmers, Treasury Wine, Dairy price inflation

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

09 June 2026

Stocktake

Australian Consumer Primer for 9 June 2026 –

Wesfarmers, Treasury Wine, Dairy price inflation

ACKey themes we are exploring today: AustralianBryan RaymondConsumer Sector

(61-2) 9003-6750

• Outlook for Wesfarmers investor day tomorrow. Wesfarmers will hold their bryan.raymond@jpmorgan.com

annual investor day from 8:30am - 12:30pm AEST tomorrow. Wesfarmers Christina Kim

(61-2) 9003-7082

investor days do not typically feature quantitative trading updates or guidance. christina.kim@jpmorgan.com

We suspect that if consensus FY26e earnings expectations ($4,450m EBIT, J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

$2,827m NPAT) were out of line, they would have been addressed in last week's

announcement that I&S will transition into Bunnings. We expect the focus of

the investor day to be on: 1) the consumer response over the past month to the

tax changes in the budget and the impact on housing spending for Bunnings;

2) the broader spending trends given US/Iran war uncertainty; 3) Earnings

outlook for WES CEF division, given the timing impacts from ammonia

pricing on AN and the impact of disruption to fertiliser markets; 4) Fair Work

Commission minimum wage implications for margins (note Wesfarmers is less

exposed in our view); 5) the impact of Spodumene prices on Mt Holland

earnings in FY27e; and 6) The store growth opportunity for Kmart’s K Home

strategy, with stand-alone homewares and furniture stores in large format

centres.

• Treasury Wine on a path to reshape business. Treasury Wine is in the early

stages of a significant repositioning of the business over the next five years,