Alliance Laundry Holdings Inc: Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Alliance Laundry Holdings Inc: Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Alliance Laundry Holdings Inc (ALH.N)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS CATALYST CALENDAR

Drivers 2025 2026e 2027e 2028e Date Event Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley

Organic growth (%) 13.0 6.4 5.8 5.9 11 Jun 2026 Alliance Laundry Holdings Inc Annual Shareholders Meeting

Operating (EBITA) Margin (%) 23.1 23.4 23.5 23.9

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Ability to sustain pricing power through RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

replacement cycle and maintain margins Shortened replacement cycle and customer

Large installed base driving predictable revenue shift to higher-efficiency, sustainable machines Sales / 1,823

steam and aftermarket flywheel Pricing strength persists with market volume Revenue 1,820 1,835

Differentiated product and LoT-enabled growth ($, mm) 1,827

platform reinforcing customer stickiness Margin upside from being a tariff beneficiary vs.

import-based competitors

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE RISKS TO DOWNSIDE EBITDA 466 478

($, mm)

APAC, ex Japan, Mainland Tight lending environment slows purchasing 471 0-10% China and India flow

0-10% Europe ex UK Inflation-driven consumer pressure increases

0-10% India risk of share loss to price-aggressive Net income 264

0-10% Japan competitors ($, mm) 261 268

0-10% Latin America 264

0-10% MEA

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING 0-10% Mainland China 1.29

0-10% UK EPS Inst. Owners, % Active 93.4% 1.27 1.30

70-80% North America ($)

HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1.4x 1.29

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate

View explanation of regional hierarchies here HF Sector Net Exposure 8.6% Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

MS ALPHA MODELS exposures held with MSPB.