Gates Industrial Corporation PLC: Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Gates Industrial Corporation PLC: Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Gates Industrial Corporation PLC (GTES.N)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS CATALYST CALENDAR

Drivers 2025 2026e 2027e 2028e Date Event Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley

Gates Industrial Corporation PLC Annual Shareholders Organic Growth (%) 0.7 1.9 3.5 3.5 04 Jun 2026

Meeting

28 Jul 2026 - 03 Operating Margin (%) 15.3 16.4 18.0 19.5 Q2 2026 Gates Industrial Corporation PLC Earnings Release

Aug 2026

27 Oct 2026 - Adj. EBITDA Margin (%) 22.4 22.6 24.1 25.3 Q3 2026 Gates Industrial Corporation PLC Earnings Release

02 Nov 2026

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

End market stabilization and inflection in certain RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

areas alongside improved operating leverage Earlier growth inflection in softer end markets,

and stronger uplift from auto and trucking Sales /

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE aftermarket Revenue 3,553 3,602

Strong operating leverage benefitting from ($, mm) 3,584

APAC, ex Japan, Mainland 0-10% volume growth and productivity investments China and India

0-10% India RISKS TO DOWNSIDE 801

0-10% Japan Prolonged industrial softness presents greater EBITDA 796 818

0-10% MEA short cycle risk ($, mm) 807

0-10% Mainland China Delayed auto and trucking inflection limits

0-10% UK growth outlook

10-20% Latin America 406 Net income

20-30% Europe ex UK 305 426

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING ($, mm) 404 40-50% North America

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate Inst. Owners, % Active 59.2%

View explanation of regional hierarchies here HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1.4x EPS

1.58 1.68

HF Sector Net Exposure 8.6% ($)

MS ALPHA MODELS 1.63

Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund

2/5 24 Month 2/5 3 Month exposures held with MSPB.