Lai Yih Footwear Co Ltd: Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Lai Yih Footwear Co Ltd: Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

RiskRisk RewardReward– Lai Yih- FootwearLai YihCoFootwearLtd (6890.TW) Co Ltd (6890.TW)

Gloomy 2026 Outlook

PRICE TARGET NT$185.00 EQUAL-WEIGHT THESIS

Base case, derived from 15x 2026e P/E, which we think is justified given an estimated 16% ▪We take a conservative view on Lai Yih's

earnings CAGR over 2026-28e and unfavorable conditions in the footwear industry in terms outlook given its exposure to emerging risks

of competition. of a slowdown.

expect rising competition for Adidas NT$211.38 ▪We

orders and tariff compensation to weigh on

Consensus Price Target Distribution NT$140.00 NT$290.00 margins. MS PT

the market expects new customerSource: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates ▪While

wins in 2026 to be a positive stock catalyst,

we are cautious that the contribution may

be limited.

RISK REWARD CHART ▪The company remains heavily reliant on

Adidas and Hoka, and planned capacity

TWD increases will limit 2026 margins.

▪These negatives are well known and

priced in. We are EW on Lai Yih. We apply a

NT$290.00NT$290.00(+71.09%)NT$290.00(+71.09%)(+71.09%) 15x target P/E to 2026e EPS. 320

240 Consensus Rating Distribution

62% Overweight

NT$185.00NT$185.00(+9.14%)NT$185.00(+9.14%)(+9.14%)

NT$169.50NT$169.50NT$169.50 23% Equal-weight

15% Underweight

MS Rating

80 Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

NT$90.00NT$90.00(-46.90%)NT$90.00(-46.90%)(-46.90%)

0 Risk Reward Themes

MAY '25 NOV '25 MAY '26 MAY '27

Contrarian: Positive

Key: Historical Stock Performance Current Stock Price Price Target Secular Growth: Positive

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here

BULL CASE NT$290.00 BASE CASE NT$185.00 BEAR CASE NT$90.00