European Banks: AI: More Friend Than Foe

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European Banks: AI: More Friend Than Foe

Europe Insight

May 28, 2026 03:30 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley Europe S.E., Madrid Branch+MEuropean Banks Alvaro Serrano

Equity Analyst

AI: More Friend Than Foe Alvaro.Serrano@morganstanley.comMorgan Stanley & Co. International plc+ +44 20 7425-6942

Franco Insausti, CFA

We estimate a 2-5pp improvement in C/I from AI efficiency plans, EquityFranco.Insausti@morganstanley.comAnalyst +44 20 7677-3769

more than double the revenue margin at risk longer term. We Giulia Aurora Miotto, CFA

see AI and the broader capex cycle driving our 12% EPS CAGR Equity Analyst

Giulia.Aurora.Miotto@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-5344

for the sector, and if the Middle East conflict eases, this could Noemi Peruch

put 11-12x P/E back in play. We stay positive. EquityNoemi.Peruch@morganstanley.comAnalyst +44 20 7677-3163

Gulnara Saitkulova

We see banks as net beneficiaries of AI. We follow up on our work last year (see Equity Analyst

here), analyzing headcount by function and age groups and reviewing the different Gulnara.Saitkulova@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-0313

Ned Tidmarsh

plans laid out by banks to implement AI efficiency gains. We conclude that efficiency

Research Associate

gains more than offset the potential revenue at risk we see from the deployment of Ned.Tidmarsh@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0122

deposit allocation tools or margin pressure in Wealth fees. Together with the capex Almario Sulaj

cycle underway, this provides upside risk to our 9% PPOP CAGR 2025-2028E. Almario.Sulaj@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-2049

We see 10% headcount reduction or more over the next 5 years. We estimate Banks

around two-thirds of bank employees work in central services, and AI-driven Europe

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