CD Projekt A solid Q126 overshadowed by “Songs of the Past” delay - Witcher roadmap now in focus on low visibility

研报英文原文证据摘录

CD Projekt A solid Q126 overshadowed by “Songs of the Past” delay - Witcher roadmap now in focus on low visibility

Lara Simpson AC Europe Equity Research

(44-20) 7134-3637 29 May 2026 J P M O R G A N

lara.simpson@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

CD Projekt (Underweight; Price Target: zl155.00)

Investment Thesis

CD Projekt has a strong and ambitious development pipeline with several high-profile

projects planned for launch in the mid-term - the next major project is the development of

a new Witcher trilogy, starting with "The Witcher 4: Polaris", which is the flagship project

in full development and is expected to be launched around 2027 using Unreal Engine5 with

significant technological advancements. Following this, the company is also focusing on

“Cyberpunk 2”, which has recently progressed to the pre-production phase. Despite a strong

pipeline with the company switching back to its well-known “Witcher” franchise, we

remain cautious on volatility in earnings in the coming two years, and potential cash

constraints considering growing development budgets and lower pricing power. We would

also remind investors of the high execution risks as Cyberpunk 2077 took 5-6 years to

produce and another two years to fix, implying that our assumption that the production of

the next game takes three years already incorporates some benefit of the doubt.

Valuation

We derive our CD Projekt fair equity value estimate using a DCF model valuing announced

pipeline of projects (Witcher and Cyberpunk series), and future releases of the studio. We

use a WACC of 10.0% and terminal growth rate of 3%, setting the Dec-27 PT at PLN155/

share.

CD Projekt - DCF Summary

PLN mn

Terminal growth rate % 3.0%

WACC % 10.0%

Sum Of Discounted FCFF '27-36E PLN mn 10,897