Universal Robina Corp Out of Stock: Earnings buffer running low - costs rising, pricing capped; downgrade to UW

研报英文原文证据摘录

Universal Robina Corp Out of Stock: Earnings buffer running low - costs rising, pricing capped; downgrade to UW

Jeanette Yutan AC Asia Pacific Equity Research

(63-2) 8878-1188 28 May 2026 J P M O R G A N

jeanette.g.yutan@jpmorgan.com

Price Performance Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation

Investment Thesis

We are UW on URC as a confluence of rising input costs, peso

weakness, and structurally capped pricing power creates a

deteriorating earnings outlook with limited near-term catalysts

for re-rating. The stock has de-rated to optically low valuations

but we believe that this is not sufficient to arrest the stock price

underperformance. We expect an earnings downgrade cycle to

underpin the continued stock price underperformance. In our

view, the market is still underpricing the magnitude and duration

of URC’s margin and demand risks. Input cost inflation, in our

YTD 1m 3m 12m view, will rise further on inventory cycle resets to more

Abs -10.0% 0.1% -24.2% -29.5% expensive RM, exacerbated by sustained high OPEX (utilities,

Rel -6.8% 0.2% -12.9% -20.7%

logistics, etc) and demand uncertainty. Consumers are expected

Company Data to see real income squeezed, constraining URC’s ability to pass

Shares O/S (mn) 2,139 through costs without risking volume loss or share erosion.

52-week range (Php) 96.68-59.20

Market cap ($ mn) 2,106 Valuation

Exchange rate 61.57 Our Dec-26 PT of Php55 is based on a target 12M forward P/E

Free float (%) 42.6%

3M ADV (mn) 2.24 multiple of 9.7x, 2SD below the 10Y historical mean. This is

3M ADV ($ mn) 2.4 lower than prior multiples of 11.4x to account for the low

Volatility (90 Day) 31 earnings clarity amid a challenging top-down macro construct,

Index PSE

BBG ANR (Buy | Hold | Sell) 16|4|2 and weak demand and pricing resilience.