Perseus Mining Show me the money? Assume coverage at Overweight

研报英文原文证据摘录

Perseus Mining Show me the money? Assume coverage at Overweight

gan Securities Australia Limited/ J.P.

upside from a renewed buyback programme (JPMe c.US$70m FY27E). We Morgan India Private Limited

recall capital management expectations being a key driver of PLS’ relative Zane Guo

equity outperformance into the FY23 result (see Figure 6) and see a similar (61-3) 9633-4020

opportunity for Perseus’ management. zane.guo@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

• ...with an undemanding valuation? PRU is trading at an implied price of US

$3,649/oz (vs JPM US$4,200/oz LT) and an FY28E EV/attributable EBITDA

Key Changes (FYE Jun)

multiple of 2.3x. This is c.3x lower than larger-cap Australian peers (e.g. JPMe

Prev Cur Δ

EVN 6.0x FY28E, GMD 4.7x), broadly in line with historical discounts (see Adjusted PAT - 26E ($ mn) 554 512 -7.5%

Figure 9). Our DCF valuation methodology incorporates a c.11.5% post-tax Adjusted PAT - 27E ($ mn) 661 600 -9.3%

WACC (+c.450bps vs Aus-focused coverage), with our price target inferring

c.3.5x FY28E attributable EBITDA. We include minimal exploration / Half Yearly Forecasts (FYE Jun)

resource upside in our base case valuation. Adjusted PAT ($ mn)

2025A 2026E 2027E

• What are the near-term risks? FY27 cost guidance disappoints, delay to H1 207 204A 231

Nyanzaga first gold, and potential for further M&A activity. We sit c.8% above H2 228 308 368

consensus AISC in FY27E reflecting conservatism on input costs, higher FY 435 512 600

royalties and rising pre-strip at Yaoure / Edikan. At Nyanzaga, we expect first Style Exposure

gold in 1Q CY27 but risk our asset NPV at 90% pending award of a local mining

contractor (required under new local content laws). We understand there is no