Giant Manufacturing: Risk Reward Update

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Giant Manufacturing: Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

RiskRisk RewardReward– Giant -ManufacturingGiant Manufacturing(9921.TW) (9921.TW)

Demand Bottoming; Get Invested Early in Up-cycle

PRICE TARGET NT$103.00 OVERWEIGHT THESIS

Base case scenario value, derived by applying a target P/E of 20x to our 2026 EPS estimate. ▪We think the demand upcycle in Europe in

Giant's upcycle average P/E (2020-2022) was 19x (range: 9x-26x) against a 2020-22 net 2026 could be better than market

profit CAGR of 9%. We view 20x as reasonable against our 2026-28 net profit CAGR forecast expectations.

of 19%. ▪We expect bike makers' sales in China and

the US to narrow their declines in 2026 as NT$88.00

demand bottoms.

Consensus Price Target Distribution NT$72.00 NT$120.00 anticipate a re-rating as demand MS PT ▪We

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates stabilizes and margins recover.

Consensus Rating Distribution

RISK REWARD CHART

38% Overweight

50% Equal-weight

TWD 13% Underweight

MS Rating

NT$146.00NT$146.00(+120.54%)NT$146.00(+120.54%)(+120.54%) Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research 160

120 Risk Reward Themes

NT$103.00NT$103.00(+55.59%)NT$103.00(+55.59%)(+55.59%) Contrarian: Positive

Secular Growth: Positive

80 View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here

NT$66.20NT$66.20NT$66.20

40 NT$56.00NT$56.00(-15.41%)NT$56.00(-15.41%)(-15.41%)

MAY '25 NOV '25 MAY '26 MAY '27

Key: Historical Stock Performance Current Stock Price Price Target

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

BULL CASE NT$146.00 BASE CASE NT$103.00 BEAR CASE NT$56.00

25x bull case 2026e EPS 20x base case 2026e EPS 18x bear case 2026e EPS

Stronger-than-expected end demand leads Solid EU demand with stabilized US market: Further deterioration in the global economy,