MGM Resorts International Stable Leisure Demand Supports Improving Las Vegas Strip Growth; Upgrading to OW, PT $46 (+$5)

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MGM Resorts International Stable Leisure Demand Supports Improving Las Vegas Strip Growth; Upgrading to OW, PT $46 (+$5)

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

27 May 2026

MGM Resorts International ▲Overweight

Previous: Neutral

Stable Leisure Demand Supports Improving Las Vegas MGM, MGM US

Price (26 May 26):$38.45

Strip Growth; Upgrading to OW, PT $46 (+$5) ▲Price Target (Dec-26):$46.00

Prior (Dec-26):$41.00

Gaming & Lodging

Daniel Politzer, CFA AC

(1-212) 622-0110

daniel.politzer@jpmorgan.com

Samuel Nielsen

We are upgrading MGM to OW, w/ our new PT of $46 implying 20% upside. Our (1-212) 622-1366

samuel.nielsen@jpmchase.com

more favorable view on MGM reflects growing conviction that MGM LV Strip

Michael Hirsh, CFAEBITDAR estimates have bottomed, and that growth should improve in the

(1-212) 622-0295

coming months off of easier comparisons and against the backdrop of a resilient michael.hirsh@jpmchase.com

US leisure traveler. The impact of inflation/fuel prices requires monitoring, but J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

value-oriented promotions and ~50% of LV Strip traffic from drive-in customers

should support demand. Looking ahead, we are more comfortable w/ the Strip’s

supply/demand setup into Hard Rock’s 4Q27 opening, as our deep dive suggests Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec)

cannibalization risk may be modest (or best case, drive demand). With a ~14% Adj. EBITDA ($ mn)

2025A 2026E 2027E

implied FCF yield, minimal estimate risk, 11% short interest, and strong valuation Q1 748 693A

support (e.g., CZR deal, share repo, IAC), we think risk/reward skews favorably. Q2 754 722

Q3 610 610

• There’s no shortage of cheap Gaming stocks, but MGM is one of the few Q4 739 704

where estimates are poised to move higher. MGM moves in the direction of FY 2,851 2,730 2,802