Gaming Hard Rock, Soft Landing? Assessing the Impact of New Supply on the Las Vegas Strip

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Gaming Hard Rock, Soft Landing? Assessing the Impact of New Supply on the Las Vegas Strip

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

27 May 2026

Gaming

Hard Rock, Soft Landing? Assessing the Impact of New

Supply on the Las Vegas Strip

Gaming & Lodging

Daniel Politzer, CFA AC

(1-212) 622-0110

daniel.politzer@jpmorgan.com

Samuel Nielsen

A key concern among investors in Las Vegas Strip stocks (e.g., MGM, CZR, (1-212) 622-1366

samuel.nielsen@jpmchase.com

WYNN) is the anticipated impact of Hard Rock Las Vegas, which is expected to

Michael Hirsh, CFAopen in 4Q27 at the prior Mirage site. To frame the potential impact, we analyzed

(1-212) 622-0295

the past 20 casino/resort openings in Las Vegas, dating back to The Mirage in 1989. michael.hirsh@jpmchase.com

Historically, in the 12 months following a major new property opening, market- J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

wide Las Vegas saw a boost: visitation rose 6% y/y on average (vs. 2% LT CAGR),

GGR increased 8% (vs. 4% LT CAGR), and industry room revenue grew 11% (vs.

7.5% LT CAGR). The Strip’s ability to absorb incremental supply at any point

depends on multiple factors (LV Strip health, concurrent openings, macro, etc.),

but historically, the impact on existing properties has been neutral to slightly

positive. On average, same-store GGR increased 1% while same-store room

revenue increased 4% in the year after a major opening. While we acknowledge

Las Vegas Strip demand is still stabilizing post a soft 2025, we come away less

concerned about Hard Rock-driven cannibalization risk in 2027-28.

• Key takeaways. (1) New Las Vegas Strip property openings have historically

driven incremental visitation, GGR, and room revenue. (2) Clustered openings

—when a large amount of new supply comes online at once—have produced