Coffee Stain-Small Teams, Big Returns-05/19/2026

研报英文原文证据摘录

Coffee Stain-Small Teams, Big Returns-05/19/2026

27, on a base of 16m+ copies sold). Across Minority interests (SEKm) 0

eight comparable early access → 1.0 transitions, daily revenue baselines stepped up Enterprise value 26e (SEKm) 3,639

by 121% on average post-launch. We forecast SEK 400m of combined incremental Free float (%) 78

launch uplift, underpinning 30% organic growth and 51% cash EBIT growth in

FY'26/27e, with EBIT/EBITDAC CAGR of 20%/18% FY'25/26-28/29e. The post-launch

monetization gap vs. key peer Paradox represents meaningful additional optionality. Total Return Index

We initiate with a Buy recommendation, TP SEK 30

Despite forecast growth and profitability metrics at the top end of the peer group,

105Coffee Stain trades at 8.1x EV/EBIT adj. and 2.7x EV/EBITDAC accumulated

FY'26/27e-28/29e, vs. a peer group median of 3.1x and Paradox at 4.8x. We forecast 100

SEK 388m of FCF in FY'26/27e (10.5% FCF yield) and SEK 1.15bn accumulated over 95

FY'26/27-28/29e (26%/30% of EV/MCAP). With a net cash position of SEK 620m 90

(14.1% of MCAP), an already announced SEK 300m distribution (6.8% dividend yield) 85

likely repeatable next year, and an additional ~SEK 177m (PASe) of "hidden" cash 80

sitting at Iron Gate that could be paid out post-Valheim 1.0, we believe the current 75

valuation reflects little to no growth and fails to capture both the franchise pipeline and 70

the post-launch monetization optionality. We initiate coverage with a Buy Dec-25 Feb-26 Apr-26

recommendation and a target price of SEK 30, corresponding to 13.6x EV/EBIT adj. Coffee Stain OMXS

and a 6.5% FCF yield on FY'26/27e. Source: FactSet

SEKm 2024 2025 2026e 2027e 2028e

Revenues 1,089 961 1,240 1,137 1,199

EBITDA 753 485 702 626 722

EBIT adj 544 288 457 416 502