Autodesk Inc "Customer Checks Suggest Stable Trends Persist" (Buy) McGinnis

研报英文原文证据摘录

Autodesk Inc "Customer Checks Suggest Stable Trends Persist" (Buy) McGinnis

iven and hiring trends UBS Cons.

across SaaS have appeared broadly constrained. That said, the prints from ADSK’s Q1E 2.86 2.84

peers (NEM, DSY, PTC, BSY, etc.) seemed to point to a roughly stable demand Q2E 3.07 3.04

environment, so taken together, we tilt toward a view that ADSK’s growth outlook Q3E 3.16 3.16

remains intact. One of our checks was an early adopter of AI and their outlook is Q4E 3.40 3.37

worth highlighting as we assess the future of ADSK. They’re expecting a 6–8% 01/27E 12.48 12.44

reduction in engineering headcount—the first instance of AI-driven labor 01/28E 14.40 14.09

displacement we’ve observed in AEC. Despite this, they anticipate a meaningful 01/29E 16.11 16.00

increase in ADSK spend at renewal, since they’ve been piloting/using ADSK’s AI

Taylor McGinnis

products for free and ADSK has communicated a shift towards consumption- Analyst

based pricing (Flex token usage and API access to Autodesk Platform Services taylor.mcginnis@ubs.com

using MCP). This dynamic underscores a broader transition toward usage-based +1-212-713 1332

monetization in apps software, with ADSK appearing to be positioning itself

Daniela Campo, CFA

accordingly (there could be upside if ADSK executes successfully or risk if this move Analyst

creates near-term disruption). daniela.campo@ubs.com

+1-212-713-3781

AI Opportunity & Risks: The AI bear case centers on the risk that CAD software

may be less insulated than currently perceived, with potential for LLM providers or Madeline Tribendis

AI-native entrants to take share. That said, the majority of our checks continue to Associate Analyst

point to a high barrier to displacement for Revit and AutoCAD, driven by madeline.tribendis@ubs.com

+1-212-713 8151