ARX's Hadron Transition in Motion+Cutting Thru TWFG's FL MGA [EPS Upside] Noise

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ARX's Hadron Transition in Motion+Cutting Thru TWFG's FL MGA [EPS Upside] Noise

May 18, 2026 | 10:31 ET~

Insurance Property & Casualty

ARX's Hadron Transition in Motion+Cutting Thru Insurance Property & Casualty

TWFG's FL MGA [EPS Upside] Noise Michael Zaremski Analyst

michael.zaremski@bmo.com (646) 873-5043

Charlie Lederer, CPA VP Associate

Bottom Line: charlie.lederer@bmo.com (347) 839-0835

We ultimately increase 2027 run-rate estimates for ARX (+1%) and TWFG (+3%) and Jack Matten, CFA VP Associate

recap the puts and takes herein. jack.matten@bmo.com (212) 671-8000

TWFG (TWFG; $18.16; OP) - What Investors Need To Appreciate: We estimate the Daniel Cohen Senior Associate

FL MGA will drive organic well above 20% in 2Q (see Exhibit 1), which compares to daniel.cohen@bmo.com (646) 873-5139

cons +15%; after that, we'd expect a moderating impact in 3Q followed by a headwind Legal Entity: BMO Capital Markets Corp.

4Q26-3Q27. We estimate investors will want to better understand whether TWFG has

levers to offset these headwinds next year (recall, its 2024 hires were expected to reach Insurance Property & Casualty

maturity around then, see our note). However, from a consensus earnings revision

standpoint, we estimate TWFG's margin upside can continue to make up for this. 600

Key Points 500

Accelerant Holdings (ARX; $15.44; OP) - 2Q Print Shows ARX Overcoming Hadron

Hiccup? ARX's 2Q EBITDA guidance came in below consensus despite upside on 400 Nov May Nov May

premium volumes and third-party premiums volumes. Our understanding is that this LHS: Price Source: FactSet

is because more third party premiums are being moved from Hadron to other third

party carriers that initially reinsure the business through ARX before then moving to

more independent reinsurance programs.