ARX: Updating Estimates for Raised Guidance, Incremental Buybacks

研报英文原文证据摘录

ARX: Updating Estimates for Raised Guidance, Incremental Buybacks

Accelerant Holdings

Target/Upside/Downside Scenarios Investment summary

We initiated coverage of Accelerant on 8/18/25, you may readAccelerant Holdings

that note here.

35 211 Days 23JUL25 - 13MAY26

Our investment thesis remains intact and balances a more

30 tepid macro view, including expectations for a slowing P&C

25 pricing cycle and rising competition in specialty markets, with

20 TARGETTARGET 18.0018.00 a favorable view of Accelerant's growth outlook, including

15 CURRENTCURRENT 12.5312.53 expectation for new MGA/Risk Partner additions. Specifically,

10 our thesis is supported by our view that:

30m 1) The Risk Exchange should see independent activity grow

20m 10m meaningfully

2025 2026

J A S O N D J F M A M • Disciplined recruitment, tight underwriting controls should ARX US Rel. S&P 500 COMPOSITE MA 40 weeks

Source: Bloomberg and RBC Capital Markets estimates for Target attract new risk capital partners

• Value-add to MGA partners is significant, pipeline isValuation attractive

Our $18 price target is based on a 9.0x 2027E EV/EBITDA target • Recent onboardings provide built-in growth tailwindmultiple, which is below broker multiples and recent MGA

transaction multiples, despite higher growth expectations and 2) Macro headwinds are emerging, but MGA market is a

significant margin expansion potential at Accelerant. growing opportunity

Our base case assumes a slowing macro environment, with • Competition on pricing is rising, particularly in recent

more competitive specialty markets, particularly in Property months

risks. We see Accelerant Exchange Written Premium reaching • MGAs are growing market share, particularly in non-

$6.4B in 2027, driven by new Member additions and exclusive channels