JPM Natural Gas and NGL Reservoir Super El Niño Prospects Complicate Gas Demand Story for the 2026-27 Heating Season

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JPM Natural Gas and NGL Reservoir Super El Niño Prospects Complicate Gas Demand Story for the 2026-27 Heating Season

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

22 May 2026

JPM Natural Gas and NGL

Reservoir

Super El Niño Prospects Complicate Gas Demand

Story for the 2026-27 Heating Season

JPM View: In this week’s Reservoir, we take a look at the potential for milder Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

ACwinter weather this year as prospects of an El Niño weather pattern begin to form. Arun Jayaram

El Niño is a climate pattern in which trade winds weaken, pushing warm water back (1-212) 622-8541

east towards the west coast of the Americas. Specifically, El Niño is characterized arun.jayaram@jpmchase.com

by sea surface temperatures persistently +0.5°C above average, while a strong Zach Parham

episode is when temperatures are persistently +1.5°C above average. The warmer (1-212) 622-5837

waters cause the Pacific jet stream to move south of its neutral position, which zach.parham@jpmorgan.com

results in areas in the northern U.S. and Canada becoming drier and warmer than Pankaj Bhatter, CFA

normal, while the U.S. Gulf Coast and Southeast become wetter than normal, (1-212) 622-3795

pankaj.bhatter@jpmchase.com

increasing flooding. NOAA’s May 14 update indicates El Niño is likely to develop

Jack Jerusalmisoon (82% probability for May–July 2026) and continue through the 2026–27

(1-212) 622-6552

Northern Hemisphere winter (96% probability in December 2026–February jack.jerusalmi@jpmorgan.com

2027). According to the Weather Channel, 27 El Niño events have occurred since J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

1950 (about one every 3-4 years), with the most recent spanning summer 2023 into

early spring 2024. Per the Weather Channel, the majority of model forecasts now