Pareto Oil & Gas-Pareto Oil & Gas: Trump weighs Iran military action but still pursues nuclear deal-05/18/2026

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Pareto Oil & Gas-Pareto Oil & Gas: Trump weighs Iran military action but still pursues nuclear deal-05/18/2026

space from Iraq on Sunday morning

Pareto Oil & Gas assumptions 2025A 2026E 2027E Long-term

• Trump still expects an Iran deal and sets hardline terms while Brent Oil USD/bbl $ 68.4 bbl $ 90.0 bbl $ 80.0 bbl $ 80.0 bbl

awaiting updated proposal: Trump told Axios he is waiting for an WTIEuropeanOil gas price USD/mcf" $$ 63.412.5mcfbbl $$ 85.014.0mcfbbl $$ 75.012.0mcfbbl $$75.09.0mcfbbl

updated Iranian proposal and still believes Iran wants a deal, while Pareto E&P Coverage Avg. prod. Total returns (USD)

declining to give a specific deadline. Per Fars, the US has laid out Mcap P/E (x) Tot. yield Growth P/NAV

five conditions in response to Iran’s earlier proposal: no CompanyNorth Sea (USDm) 26E (%) 26E 24-27e (x) 1M YTD 1Y

compensation from the US, handover of 400kg of HEU to the US, Equinor 98,330 9.0x 14 % 1 % n.a 4% 68% 74%

only one nuclear facility to remain active, less than 25% of frozen AkerVår EnergiBP 23,60012,700 11.3x7.7x 107 %% 106 %% n.a.n.a 5%8% 51%59% 74%95%

assets to be released, and a halt to the war on all fronts contingent DNOBlueNord 2,0201,650 12.4x5.0x 148 %% 2117 %% 0.76x0.96x 8%7% 36%51% 89%49%

on negotiations OKEA 430 3.4x 0 % 4 % 0.78x (1)% 87% 155%

• Our take: If the reporting is correct, the parties seem to be far Africa

away from a final deal. For instance, handover of the HEU seems Meren Energy 1,150 8.8x 10 % 15 % 0.61x (3)% 32% 39%

unlikely to take place - Why would Iran do that? From Iran’s BWPanoroEnergyEnergy 1,550500 6.5x3.4x 05 %% 3818 %% 0.68x0.72x 14%1% 28%92% 95%72%

perspective, it would still need to factor in the risk of future military Sintana Energy 180 n.m 0 % 0 % 0.39x (21)% 5% (16)%