Qualitas Controladora SAB de CV: Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Qualitas Controladora SAB de CV: Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

RiskRisk RewardReward– Qualitas- QualitasControladora ControladoraSAB de CV (Q.MX) SAB de CV (Q.MX)

Equal-weight on slower growth & higher loss ratio

PRICE TARGET M$201.00 EQUAL-WEIGHT THESIS

Our 12-month forward price target is derived from a residual income model. In our model, the Premium growth continues to decelerate on

value of the firm is mainly a function of the magnitude of the spread between ROE and cost the back of soft macro and rising

of equity (performance spread) and the period in which management can generate returns in competition. Claims increase as frequency

excess of the cost of equity (economic growth horizon). Our models use a discount rate of and weather events normalize, while

10.7% and long-term capital ratio of 20%. inflation and limited pricing power put

additional pressure on the loss ratio over

M$181.33 the next 12 months. Financial income

Consensus Price Target Distribution M$156.00 M$212.00 remains weak on the back of lower average

MS PT interest rates. However, turnaround of US

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates operations, and international expansion

offsets some of the earnings pressure.

Valuation looks fair at 11x 2026 P/E

RISK REWARD CHART considering weaker EPS growth, execution

and policy risks, limited disclosure on new

verticals, and potential losses from US

MXN

M$255.00M$255.00(+49.08%)M$255.00(+49.08%)(+49.08%) operations.

240 Consensus Rating Distribution

M$201.00M$201.00(+17.51%)M$201.00(+17.51%)(+17.51%) 10% Overweight

180 M$171.05M$171.05M$171.05 60% Equal-weight

30% Underweight

MS Rating

120 M$140.00M$140.00(-18.15%)M$140.00(-18.15%)(-18.15%)

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

Risk Reward Themes

Pricing Power: Negative