Intuit: 3Q26 Results – Tax Speed Bump or Something Deeper?

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Intuit: 3Q26 Results – Tax Speed Bump or Something Deeper?

n outsized weight in determining the directionality of Q1 2.50 - 3.34a 3.83 3.93

Q2 3.31 - 4.14a 4.76 4.82

shares. While overall results slightly topped consensus on total revenues at $8.6 Q3 11.65 - 12.81a 14.29 14.56

billion or up 10% YoY and non-GAAP EPS came in 2% ahead of consensus at $12.80, Q4 2.75 2.96 3.59 4.29 4.42

up 8% YoY, the bigger story will likely prove to be a disappointing tax performance. e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates, a = Actual Company reported data

With Intuit now looking for the total Turbo Tax business to grow 7% in FY26 versus

buyside expectations hoping for something closer to 10%, the company now finds

themselves in the tough position of trying to disprove the thesis 'increasing

competition from GenAI is starting to impact the tax business'. That said, the

company does have a decent argument to make for the durability of revenue growth

in the broader business, and the potential for further upside to margins, which

should yield a consistent mid-to-high teens EPS growth profile over the next several

years – a growth profile not reflected in the current share price, in our view.

Part one of the argument, Intuit's core growth initiatives are yielding well. Within

the tax segment, TurboTax Live largely represents Intuit's efforts to break into the

broader $37 billion Assisted Tax category, expanding the market opportunity from

the $5 billion Do-It-Yourself (DIY) category. In Q3, TurboTax Live returns grew 38%

YoY, and while heavy promotional activity around Live left average revenue per unit Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with

(ARPU) down 1%, overall TurboTax Live revenues grew 36% YoY (without Intuit companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,