Tax Season Comes But Once a Year; Unfortunately it is 4 Qtrs Away; Assume at UW

研报英文原文证据摘录

Tax Season Comes But Once a Year; Unfortunately it is 4 Qtrs Away; Assume at UW

C O M P A NY N O TE

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feeds into the AI disruption narrative (deserved or not), weighing on INTU's multiple. Our $250 PT

implies multiples of 9x FY27 EV/FCF and 9x FY27 P/E (based on our estimates). Optimistically,

results have not been disastrous, as INTU still raised the total rev guide after F3Q (despite a

TurboTax guide down) and we are still expecting low-double digit rev growth in FY27. After a

mixed tax season, management is signaling several changes as we contemplate FY27: 1) the firm

will make pricing/packaging changes to capture some of the low-end DIY filers, 2) Mailchimp will

be flattish in FY27, 3) Desktop will decline roughly low-single digits (versus mid-single digit growth

in FY26). This suggests in some ways FY27 could be a transition year from a revenue standpoint.

As a result, we expect shares to be rangebound (at best) to choppy (at worst) until investors have

more comfort around LT growth rates.

How Do We Get Constructive? Under the hood, there are handful of bright spots within Intuit’s

portfolio, including its Big Bets (all growing revenue 30%+), QuickBooks, the human-assisted

(“Live”) QuickBooks and TurboTax businesses, and Credit Karma. Added up, this is the majority of

revenue. We need more conviction these growth drivers could stabilize the total growth rate from

here, versus the ultimate bear case that some of the aforementioned headwinds could lead to a

steady revenue growth deceleration.

Challenges for INTU Post-F3Q26

Reduced TurboTax Guide from 8% to 7%. F3Q coincides with peak tax season, which has

historically been Intuit’s Super Bowl, but the company arguably disappointed this year. The F3Q26