Liverpool Seeing Risks To Guidance Delivery; Re-rating Needs Clearer Capital Returns - Keep Neutral

研报英文原文证据摘录

Liverpool Seeing Risks To Guidance Delivery; Re-rating Needs Clearer Capital Returns - Keep Neutral

J P M O R G A N Latin America Equity Research

21 May 2026

Liverpool Neutral

LIVEPOLC1.MX, LIVEPOLC MM

Seeing Risks To Guidance Delivery; Re-rating Needs Price (21 May 26):Ps104.60

Clearer Capital Returns - Keep Neutral ▲Price Target (Dec-26):Ps106.00 Prior (Dec-26):Ps98.00

Liverpool remains a demand-and-execution-led story, where the near-term question

is whether operational normalization (import availability, logistics flow, and post- LatAm Retail & Healthcare

February disruption recovery) can translate into a credible re-acceleration in traffic- Joseph Giordano AC

led SSS amid intensifying online competition. We reiterate our Neutral rating with (55-11) 4950-3020

Dec’26 PT of Ps106/sh (8%+ vs previous) as SSS is still tracking well below joseph.giordano@jpmorgan.com

Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.

management’s FY26 guidance (Liverpool 5–6%; Suburbia 4.5–5.5%) versus our

Froylan Mendez4.2% / 2.8% forecasts, implying a steeper 2H ramp than the 1H run-rate suggests. The

(52-55) 5540-9482

swing risk is now two-way: a faster-than-expected recovery in availability/mix and froylan.mendez@jpmchase.com

FX/timing tailwinds could lift SSS and improve operating leverage, but a more J.P. Morgan Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V., J.P.

selective consumer, heavier promotions, and continued share gains by pure e- Morgan Grupo Financiero

commerce players could cap any rebound. Valuation still reflects a meaningful Nicolas Larrain

governance/capital-allocation overhang (which we keep in our framework), and a (55-11) 4950-3472

nicolas.larrain@jpmorgan.com

higher multiple would likely require clearer shareholder-return signals plus sustained Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.

SSS convergence.