Shell PLC ARC proforma; Value in the liquids, upside in the gas

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Shell PLC ARC proforma; Value in the liquids, upside in the gas

C A Z E N O V E Europe Equity Research

22 May 2026

Shell PLC Overweight

SHEL.L, SHEL LN

ARC proforma; Value in the liquids, upside in the gas Price (21 May 26):3,239p

Price Target (Jun-27):3,900p

We publish Shell/ARC proforma forecasts and assess key value drivers. ARC European Oil & Gas

ACpresents an opportunity for Shell to advance two strategic cornerstones - 2030s Matthew Lofting, CFA

upstream liquids longevity and global LNG leadership - in one transaction. We (44-20) 7134-6301

model LSD% FCF/sh accretion to 2030 at LT $65 Brent plus price and duration matthew.lofting@jpmorgan.com

upside. Behind this, we find: 1) Liquids longevity. In aggregate, we estimate J.P. Morgan Securities plc

>50% of a 350kb/d 2035 shortfall as of last year’s CMD has been addressed. This Tianyu Wu

suggests further scale M&A is not a necessity and affords time for a value-led, (44-20) 3493-1281

tianyu.wu@jpmorgan.com

organic approach to further growth; 2) Synergies apace. Asset complementarity, J.P. Morgan Securities plc

extrapolation of processes honed during Shell’s strategic ‘sprint’ and integration

Riddhi Agarwal

value into LNG Canada II create an opportunity to swiftly prove-up M&A value (91-22) 6157-5048

over 6-12M; 3) Capital re-allocation. ARC fits within a broader strategy to solve riddhi.x.agarwal@jpmorgan.com

for ~$45bn (20%) of underperforming assets. Timely execution on emergent J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

opportunities including chems, LNG Canada midstream could prove an effective

Specialist Sales contact details:catalyst in signaling underlying returns high-grading. Amidst macro uncertainty,

our OW is centred on a superior risk/reward on premium FCF across a range of Ian Mitchell - Specialist Sales -